Alternate history for risk assessment in project management

Main Article Content

Anna Amsler
Cynthia M Montaudon-Tomas

Abstract

Interest in alternate history has become more prevalent, which has led to the study of its potential uses in different settings, business and management being one of them. This article presents an overview of the points of convergence between alternate history and risk identification and assessment in the context of project management. A proposal for the integration of counterfactual thinking into the early stages of risk management is introduced in the form of an adaptation of the use of traditional risk matrices. Future perspectives and limitations are also included, as the proposal is meant to complement and not substitute other risk management practices, tools, and techniques.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Article Details

Section
Articles (including Reviews)

References

Rosenfeld G 2019 Why alternate histories have overtaken pop culture The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/02/20/why-alternate-historieshave-overtaken-pop-culture/ (Acessed 2 August 2023).

Hillson D 2019 Risk Management: Past and Future Infoworks. https://infoworks.com/riskmanagement-past-and-future/ (Acessed 3 May 2023).

Hillson D and Simon P 2020 Practical Project Risk Management (Oakland: Berrett-Koehler Publishers).

Carstocea G 2017 Uchronias, Alternate Histories, and Counterfactuals (In The Routledge Companion to Imaginary Worlds: Routledge).

Ferraz-Caetano J 2021 Modeling the Past: Using History of Science to Predict Alternative Scenarios on Sciencebased Legislation Hypothesis Historia Periodical 1, 60-70. DOI: 10.34626 / 2184-9978_2021_1_005

Abbott C 2016 The Past, Conditionally: Alternative History in Speculative Fiction. https://www.historians.org/researchand-publications/perspectives-on-history/january-2016/the-past-conditionally-alternativehistory-in-speculative-fiction (Acessed 26 July 2023).

Hellekson K 2000 Toward a Taxonomy of the Alternate History Genre Extrapolation 41(3) 248.

Montaudon Tomas C M, and Amsler A 2021 The value of alternative stories in scenario planning Hypothesis Historia Periodical 1 110-127. DOI: 10.34626 / 2184-9978_2021_1_008

Montaudon Tomas C M, Pinto López I N and Amsler A 2021 Using alternative stories to promote organizational change. Hypothesis Historia Periodical 1 45-59. DOI: 10.34626 / 2184-9978_2021_1_004

Montaudon Tomas C M, Pinto López I N and Amsler A 2022 Business process reengineering(BPR) using alternate histories. Hypothesis Historia Periodical 2 1-14. DOI: 10.34626/2184-9978_2022_10-S1_001

Montaudon Tomas C M, and Amsler A 2022 Use of alternate histories in benchmarking: Building better business Hypothesis Historia Periodical 2 1-14. DOI: 10.34626/2184-9978_2022_2_1

Schenkel G 2012 Alternate history-alternate memory: counterfactual literature in the context of German normalization (Doctoral dissertation, University of British Columbia). DOI: 10.14288/1.0072716

Winthrop-Young G 2009 Fallacies and Thresholds Notes on the Early Evolution of Alternate History Historical Social Research 34 (2) 99-117. DOI: 10.12759/hsr.34.2009.2.99-117

Sarasúa-Gutiérrez A 2021 Alternate History and the Normalization of the Traumatic Past in Philip K Dick’s The Man in the High Castle Len Deighton’s SS-GB and Their Television Adaptations Master’s Thesis UNED. http://e-spacio.uned.es/fez/eserv/bibliuned:master-Filologia-ELyCIyPSAsarasua/SARASUA_GUTIERREZ__Alexia_TFM.pdf (Acessed 28 July 2023).

Neto S 2022 For King and Country and Lenin: Alternate History Fiction in the Portuguese First Republic Hypothesis Historia Periodical 2 1-12. DOI: 10.34626/2184-9978_2022_10-S1_003

Lemaire P 2020 Alternate History and the Classical Past: The Uchronic Impulse Revista Hélice 6 (2) 12-23.

Raghunath R 2017 Alternative Realities: Counterfactual Historical Fiction and Possible Worlds Theory Doctoral Sheffield Hallam University. https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/7673/18430f966787a0d47f4e227d5e8c5fe8b4b0.pdf (Acessed 22 July 2023).

Frost A 2017 Bad Future: Real-Time Alternate History Studies in the Fantastic. DOI: 10.1353/sif.2017.0001

Tabaszewska J 2022 Affective Future and Non-Existent History: The Issue of Future Past in Memory Research Memories of ‘Future Past’ as an Aspect of Creating Contemporary Poetics of Memory. http://rcin.org.pl/Content/236531/WA248_273101_111_tabaszewska_o.pdf (Acessed 28 July 2023).

Kaye S T 2010 Challenging Certainty: The Utility and History of Counterfactualism History and Theory 49 (1) 38-57.

Ali A 2011 Salman Rushdie’s Grimus as an Alternative History The Criterion An International Journal in English 2 (2). https://www.the-criterion.com/V2/n2/Ali.pdf (Acessed 11 July 2023).

Landel H 2016 The Risk Matrix as a tool for risk analysis (Master’s Dissertation, University of Gävle) https://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:944825/FULLTEXT01.pdf (Acessed 20 July 2023).

De Sousa L and Morais P 2014 Document technique: Outil d’évaluation des risques et orientation Conseil de l’Europe. https://rm.coe.int/16806d8b1f (Acessed 28 July 2023).

Wickboldt J A Bianchin L A Castagna Lunardi R Zambenedetti Granville L Paschoal Gaspary L, Bartolini C 2011 A framework for risk assessment based on analysis of historical information of workflow execution in IT systems Computer Networks 55(13) 2954-2975.

Bakker K Boonstra A and Wortman H 2010 Does risk management contribute to project success? A meta-analysis of empirical evidence 493-503. DOI: 10.1016/j.ijproman.2009.07.002

U.S. Department of Defense 2017 Risk, Issue, and Opportunity Management Guide for Defense Acquisition Programs. https://web.archive.org/web/20170704192215/https://www.acq.osd.mil/se/docs/2017-RIO.pdf#page=36 (Acessed 5 July 2023).

Van Wyk, R Bowen P, and Akintoye A 2008 Project risk management practice: the case of a South African utility company International Journal of Project Management 26 (2) 149–163. DOI: 10.1016/j.ijproman.2007.03.011

Kutsch E and Hall M 2010 Deliberate ignorance in project risk management International Journal of Project Management 28 (3) 245–255. DOI: 10.1016/j.ijproman.2009.05.003

Ilyas M A Hassan M K and Ilyas, M U 2013 PMIS: boon or bane? Paper presented at PMI® Global Congress 2013—EMEA, Istanbul, Turkey Newtown Square, PA: Project Management Institute.

Project Management Institute 2017 A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK Guide) Sixth Edition (Pennsylvania: Project Management Institute).

Kessels-Habraken M Van Der Schaaf T De Jonge J Rutte C and Kerkvliet K 2009 Integration of prospective and retrospective methods for risk analysis in hospitals International Journal for Quality in Health Care 21(6) 427-432. DOI: 10.1093/intqhc/mzp043

Healy K and Schruben L W 1992 Retrospective simulation response optimization. Proceedings – Winter Simulation Conference 901-906.

Deloitte 2017 Seeing the storm ahead: Predictive Risk Intelligence. https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/us/Documents/risk/usrfa-seeing-the-storm-ahead.pdf (Acessed 23 July 2023).

NASA 2009 Risk Management Reporting Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt. https://infostore.saiglobal.com/en-us/standards/nasa-gsfc-std-0002-2009-734969_SAIG_NASA_NASA_1784983/ (Acessed 12 July 2023).

Thomas P Bratvold R B and Bickel J E 2014 The Risk of Using Risk Matrices Economics & Management 55-66. DOI: 10.2118/166269-MS

Dujim N J 2015 Recommendations on the use and design of risk matrices Safety Science DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2015.02.014 (Acessed 20 July 2023).

Baratta A 2006 The triple constraint: a triple illusion. Paper presented at PMI® Global Congress 2006—North America, Seattle, WA. Newtown Square, PA: Project Management Institute.

Secretaría Ejecutiva del Sistema Estatal Anticorrupción Puebla 2021 Política Estatal Anticorrupción. https://seseap.puebla.gob.mx/pea (Acessed 25 July 2023).

Ristic D 2013 A tool for risk assessment. Safety Engineering 3 (3) 121-127. https://www.znrfak.ni.ac.rs/SE-Journal/Archive/SEWEB%20Journal%20-%20Vol3-3/Safety%20Engineering%20Vol03No3.pdf#page=21 (Acessed 12 July 2023).

Holquist M 1981 The Dialogic Imagination: Four Essays by M. M. Bakhtin University of Texas University Press.

Peacos P 2016 Bias: The Hidden Danger to Your Risk Assessment American Pharmaceutical Review. https://www.americanpharmaceuticalreview.com/Featured-Articles/184365-Bias-The-Hidden-Danger-to-Your-Risk-Assessment/ (Acessed 26 July 2023).

Gomez L E and Bernet P 2019 Diversity improves performance and outcomes Journal of the National Medical Association 111(4) 383-392. DOI: 10.1016/j.jnma.2019.01.006